Baltic Bird

Passenger Potential Analysis


WP Leader

The Baltic Institute of Finland

Esa Kokkonen
Tel. 00358 3 56 56 69 45
Mob. 00358 50 516 91 11
Fax 00358 3 56 56 62 52
This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.


The main objective of the Work Package 3 "Passenger Potential Analysis" (WP 3) is to analyse the market demand for air transport in the peripheral Baltic Sea Region (BSR), by reflecting the current travel demands of people to and from BSR. The objective is also to investigate the potential demand already existing to inaugurate air services. Therefore, details such as demand structure, air service types and effects on the accessibility will be outlined for the new routes identified. Partners will jointly develop the conceptual design of tasks for PAX market potential, while considering partner regions', airports' or airlines' needs, characteristics for providing data and information. This will lead to an integrated model approach, which considers and processes regional socio-economic data, existing mode networks, current accessibility and the competitive market situation, while covering the peripheral and agglomerated BSR embedded in Europe.

Work Package 3 is a prerequisite for Work Package 5 ("Transnational development of toolbox to enhance accessibility of peripheral BSR by Air Transport", please see WP 5.1, WP 5.2 and WP 5.3). It delivers a comprehensive picture of market demands, the fundamentals to attract airlines and to decide about implementing PSO/ RDF routes in the context of the cohesion policy. Airports and regional authorities must be involved in WP 3 to decide about, and to support route inauguration processes.


Activity 3.1: Joint conceptual design of PAX market potential analysis approach

The conceptual design of PAX potentials analysis tasks is important to get ideas and requirements of the involved partner regions (peripheral and agglomerated BSR), the airports and airlines, which were integrated in methodology and execution from the very beginning of WP 3 activities. This is is essential to develop direct flights to heavily populated areas and hubs in Europe to and from remote BSR, together with other regional airports. The aim is to feed flight operators own flight system with PAX volumes.

The preparation of PAX market potential analysis, in the framework of a workshop, initially involved partners jointly developing conceptual design of the market potential model, considering particular needs and characteristics of their regions and airports. First findings from PAX potential modeling in South Baltic Global Access project (SBGA) will be introduced by the SBGA Lead Partner Rostock Business, so that partners get familiar with this kind of analysis in context of the overall transport system.

Additionally, University of Applied Sciences Wismar will include the current status of air cargo flows in the BSR from project to integrate corresponding criteria to evaluate economic viability of a new route. Existing air cargo demands might add value by using belly capacities to the inauguration of a route - especially in case that PAX demand would be critical.

Activity 3.2: Data Collection

Together with external expert MKmetric Gesellschaft für Systemplanung mbH, partners collect relevant data to feed the PAX market potential model, and further develop and integrate their own regional needs. Preferably, an integrated model approach considers and processes regional socio-economic data, competitive situation of routes, access and egress by surface modes, and current accessibility covering involved peripheral and agglomerated BSR. The needs of BALTIC BIRD partners will lead to adjustment of SBGA project’s PAX potential model approach, and to the needs and requirements of BSR air cargo network formulated by University of Applied Sciences Wismar ( project).

BALTIC BIRD benefits as well of Mid Nordic Committee who contributes its experiences in East-West and West-East Scandinavian transport corridor and of Inari Municipal Business & Development Nordica who integrates its special requirements of companies and people along the Arctic Corridor between the Baltic Sea, the Barents Sea and the Murmansk area. This regional information will enrich the performance of the PAX market potential approach in BALTIC BIRD as well as increase its quality. On the other hand, partners of the simultaneously working projects of SBGA and can communicate BALTIC BIRD findings to their project partners, which will lead to the rising quality of their own project findings.

Activity 3.3: Execution of PAX market potential analysis

The PAX market potential analysis shall refer to internal flight connections between the partner airports, but shall also focus on external accessibility of the BSR, above all of its peripheral regions in the North and East. Meanwhile the external expert MKmetric Gesellschaft für Systemplanung mbH will execute the detailed market potential analysis, indicating PAX figures and structures on further market potential comprising following exemplary working steps:

  • Setting criteria to define accessibility (e.g. travel time)
  • Investigation of new routes under particular consideration for competition between airports, routes and other modes of transport (e.g. train connections in BSR between Ostrobothnia Region and Tampere or Helsinki, combined ferry and train transport being part of Scandinavian East-West and West-East transport corridor)
  • Development of a measurable system to weight, rank and classify the identified routes under consideration of air cargo transport flows and accessibility criteria
  • Investigation of the potential to increase air accessibility (e.g. investigation of location factors that shall attract investors and SME for settling in peripheral regions (Arctic Corridor, Ostrobothnia Region, North Karelia, Oulu))
  • Taking into account best practice examples of development of new flight connections for regional airports in other EU regions than in BSR
By the end of activity 3.3, there will be a joint report with precise identification of commercial routes, as well as not commercially viable routes, for which financial regional support by PSO/ RDF might be recommended. As well there will be an information set, which provides all relevant socio-economic data, required by airlines and airports for verification purposes.

Activity 3.4: Approaching Airlines

The transnational approaching of airlines starts as soon as the "joint airlines negotiation and marketing strategy" of WP 5.1 ("Airport Marketing Support Strategies") is finalised. WP 5.1 acts as road map showing how to approach airlines to meet the main objective of the project, which is the implementation of a new flight connection for a better accessibility of peripheral BSR.

Approaching of airlines shall be done by a joint transnational approach of the partner airports and associated airlines (e.g. Estonian Air, AirBaltic), if origin and destination belong to them. Based on an interactive session in the initial 3.4 workshop, partners will also check whether already existing “local private or public air transport services” (e.g. Sverigeflyg) or “Fly on Demand” could also be approached. "Fly in Demand" is an air transportation concept used by organizations and individuals in USA and India. BALTIC BIRD will investigate whether this concept could be transferred and implemented in the BSR. An example of this would be to link the Southeast BSR with the Northern BSR of Finnmark, Lappland and Barents region. Thereby Inari with its Arctic Corrridor project linking Northern Lapland and Barents region, Nordland County Council in Northern Norway, and Avinor A/S with the airports of Bodø, Tromsø and Alta would bring in their experiences for a case study.

Activity 3.5: Implementation of new routes

Integrating the working results of Work Packages 5.1 ("Airport Marketing Support Strategies") and 5.3 ("PSO/ RDF") in total 6 new flight connections to and from peripheral BSR shall be implemented. Therefore PSO/RDF application guidelines will be used (see WP 5.3) to co-finance commercial risk of setting up new routes by regional authorities. Also airport marketing instruments (see WP 5.1) and tourism destination marketing concept (see WP 5.2 "Tourism Destination Development") will support implementation of new flight connections. Examples may include flyers, brochures and further information material about the new route.

Activity 3.6: Calculation of ecological sustainability of implementing new routes

Once the approaching of airlines to establish new flight connections to and from BALTIC BIRD partner airports has begun, calculation of the ecological sustainability of implementing new routes will commence. Every new route that will be part of discussions with airlines will be examined with regard to its ecological impact. For each route option, there will be a calculation of the carbon footprint per PAX by considering the results of the PAX market potential analysis and also the air cargo transport potential for each route option. This allows continuous transparency on ecological impact when setting up new direct flight connections, and its reductions on CO2-emissions and air pollution through decreasing the number of flights which result from by-passing hub airports.

Joint cooperative integration of airlines as associated organisations allows permanent consideration of new and ecologically sustainable aircraft technologies to reduce air/ noise pollution within unique natural landscapes of peripheral BSR (e.g. Air Berlin representing one of the most modern fleets in Europe, which ensures sustainable reduction in emissions by economic fuel consumption of jets).

As BALTIC BIRD aims to facilitate the use of public transport services, the calculation of ecological impact for new route development has to go hand in hand with activity 4.6 ("Calculation of ecological sustainability of new PTS"). This deals with reducing the necessity of individual traffic contributing to reduction of emission of greenhouse gases per departing or arriving PAX. The impact of increasing use of public transport on the environment will therefore be integrated in calculation activities 3.6.

Furthermore, the impact of direct flight connections on current and future expansion strategies of hub airports in the BSR (e.g. Oslo, Stockholm) will be analyzed by calculating the impact of new BALTIC BIRD routes on the number of landings at BSR hub airports (e.g. no necessity to construct new runways). For example beside aviation route statistics Avinor A/S will include adequate knowledge about PAX numbers and airport extension strategies concerning the Oslo airport.

Expected outputs

  • PAX market potential analysis as Implementation folder (14 different folders): jointly conceptually designed; will show market demand for air transport in BALTIC BIRD regions; regions and airports will receive precise travel demands to and from BSR; incl. calculations on accessibility improvements of peripheral BSR.
  • Report on ecological sustainability of new flight connections: peripheral BSR regions and EU-policy will use the report to show people that setting up new direct flight routes together with sustainable linkage with public transport services is an ecologically balanced reduction of CO2-emissions/ air pollution).
  • New flight routes at BALTIC BIRD airports due to PAX analysis, airport marketing, and PSO/ RDF application: regional authorities, companies and inhabitants of BSR will become closer together; they can more easily visit each other (internal accessibility). In particular peripheral BSR will receive faster external accessibility to and from important economic centers in EU.

Involved partners

You are here: Home Activities Passenger Potential Analysis